Common Sense Philosophy/Chapter 3

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Chapter 3: What Counts as Progress? -- Defining Civilizational Markers

Introduction: A Rational Scorecard

In the preceding chapter we established the method: descriptive evaluation, grounded in empirical observation of what produces human flourishing and what produces avoidable suffering, supported by the convergence of human values across cultures and centuries. Now we must give that method content. What, specifically, should we look for when evaluating a civilization? What distinguishes a society that is moving forward from one that is stagnating or regressing?

This chapter proposes twelve markers of civilizational progress. They are not commandments handed down from on high. They are not the product of armchair philosophizing. They are the distillation of an enormous body of empirical evidence about what conditions are associated with human lives that the people living them judge to be worth living. Each marker is observable, measurable (at least approximately), and has been the subject of extensive scholarly research. Each is supported by evidence from multiple cultures and historical periods. And each, taken individually, commands broad agreement among reflective people worldwide, even when the specific implications are contested.

The twelve markers are organized in a rough hierarchy, from the most basic and least controversial to the more complex and more debated. But the hierarchy is not rigid: the markers interact with and reinforce one another, and progress on one front often depends on progress on several others simultaneously.

Marker 1: Reduction of Violent Death

The most elementary measure of civilizational quality is whether a society kills its members. The three principal forms of organized violent death -- war, murder, and state execution -- have varied enormously across cultures and centuries, and the variations are not random. They correlate systematically with other features of social organization: the form of government, the structure of economic relations, the role of religion, the status of women, and the quality of institutions.

The evidence. Steven Pinker's controversial but extensively documented thesis that violence has declined over the long arc of human history provides a useful starting point, whatever one thinks of his more optimistic conclusions. The per capita rate of death in warfare has declined dramatically since the mid-twentieth century, even accounting for the catastrophic world wars. Homicide rates have fallen in most developed countries over the past several centuries. The use of capital punishment has declined: in 1977, only sixteen countries had abolished the death penalty; by 2024, more than 110 had done so in law or practice.

Measurement. War deaths per 100,000 population (Uppsala Conflict Data Program); homicide rates (UN Office on Drugs and Crime); executions per capita (Amnesty International); percentage of GDP spent on military.

Current state. The global trend is positive but fragile. Interstate wars have become rarer, but civil wars, proxy conflicts, and low-intensity violence persist. Homicide rates vary enormously: from less than 1 per 100,000 in Japan and much of Western Europe to over 40 per 100,000 in Honduras and El Salvador. State execution persists in China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United States, among others.

Obstacles. The military-industrial complex, which creates institutional constituencies for the continuation of armed conflict. The glorification of martial culture, which treats violence as a source of honor rather than a civilizational failure. The arms trade, which makes the instruments of killing available on a vast scale. Great-power competition, which has returned with a vengeance in the 2020s, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrating that interstate war is not an artifact of the past.

Assessment principle. A civilization in which fewer people die violently is, other things being equal, more advanced than one in which more people die violently. This is not a controversial claim. What is controversial is the willingness to draw specific conclusions from it -- for example, that the United States, which has a homicide rate roughly five times that of Western Europe and is one of the few developed nations that retains the death penalty, is less civilized in this specific respect than comparable societies that have achieved lower rates. The data are the data. The conclusions follow.

Marker 2: Reduction of Involuntary Suffering

If violent death is the most extreme form of civilizational failure, involuntary suffering -- from disease, famine, poverty, and preventable deprivation -- is the most pervasive. The distinction between suffering that is an unavoidable part of the human condition (aging, loss, the limits of the body) and suffering that is the product of identifiable human choices and is therefore eliminable is morally crucial.

The evidence. The reduction of involuntary suffering over the past two centuries is one of humanity's most remarkable achievements. Global life expectancy at birth has risen from approximately 30 years in 1800 to over 73 years in 2024. The proportion of the world's population living in extreme poverty has fallen from over 80 percent in 1820 to under 10 percent today. Infant mortality has declined from roughly 40 percent in pre-industrial societies to under 3 percent globally and under 0.5 percent in the best-performing countries. These gains are the result of specific human choices: investments in public health, sanitation, vaccination, agricultural technology, and social safety nets.

Measurement. Life expectancy at birth; infant and maternal mortality rates; prevalence of preventable disease; caloric intake and malnutrition rates; percentage of population in extreme poverty (World Bank poverty line); access to clean water and sanitation.

Current state. Despite enormous progress, the current distribution of suffering is grotesquely unequal. A child born in Sierra Leone can expect to live to 55; a child born in Japan can expect to live to 85. The difference is not genetic or cultural. It is institutional and political. The knowledge and resources to prevent most of the suffering that occurs in the world's poorest countries exist. What is lacking is the political will to deploy them.

Obstacles. Corruption, which diverts resources from public goods to private enrichment. War, which destroys infrastructure and institutions. Exploitative international economic arrangements that extract wealth from poor countries for the benefit of rich ones. Domestic political systems that serve the interests of elites rather than populations. And ideological resistance to redistribution, rooted in the neoliberal dogma that markets will solve problems that manifestly require collective action.

Marker 3: Expansion of Individual Liberty

Liberty -- the freedom to think, speak, believe, associate, move, and live as one chooses, within limits set by the equal liberty of others -- is not merely a value among others. It is the condition that enables individuals to pursue all other values. A person who is imprisoned for their opinions, compelled to profess beliefs they do not hold, forbidden to leave their country, or forced into a way of life they have not chosen is not merely inconvenienced. They are denied the most fundamental capacity of a human being: the capacity to shape their own life according to their own judgment.

The evidence. The expansion of individual liberty is one of the clearest markers of civilizational progress over the past several centuries. The abolition of slavery, the extension of the franchise to women, the decriminalization of homosexuality, the establishment of freedom of speech and press as legal norms -- each of these represents a measurable expansion of the domain within which individuals are free to live according to their own choices. Freedom House's annual survey, whatever its methodological limitations, provides useful longitudinal data: in 1972, only 44 countries were rated "Free"; by 2005, the number had risen to 89, before declining in subsequent years as democratic backsliding accelerated.

Measurement. Freedom of expression indices; press freedom rankings (Reporters Without Borders); freedom of movement; freedom of religion; freedom of association; legal protections for minority rights; absence of political prisoners.

Current state. The expansion of liberty has stalled and, in many parts of the world, reversed. According to Freedom House, 2023 marked the eighteenth consecutive year in which global freedom declined. Authoritarian governments in China, Russia, Iran, Myanmar, and elsewhere have intensified repression. Even in established democracies, the rise of populist movements has eroded liberal norms. The digital revolution, which was expected to be an instrument of liberation, has in many cases become an instrument of surveillance and control.

Obstacles. Authoritarian governments, which maintain power by restricting liberty. Religious institutions, which restrict liberty in the name of divine authority. Cultural norms that restrict liberty in the name of tradition (particularly the liberty of women and sexual minorities). And the paradoxical tendency of free societies to take their freedoms for granted until they are lost.

Marker 4: Protection of Bodily Autonomy

Bodily autonomy -- the right of every person to determine what happens to and within their own body -- is a specific and especially important form of individual liberty. It encompasses reproductive rights, sexual autonomy, freedom from physical violence and torture, freedom from forced medical procedures, and the right to determine the conditions of one's own death.

The evidence. The historical record is clear: the progressive extension of bodily autonomy to groups that were previously denied it -- women, racial minorities, sexual minorities, prisoners, the disabled -- is one of the most consistent features of civilizational progress. The abolition of torture as a judicial practice, the criminalization of domestic violence and marital rape, the legalization of contraception and abortion, the decriminalization of same-sex relations, and the emergence of assisted dying as a legal option in a growing number of countries all represent the expansion of bodily autonomy.

Measurement. Legal status of contraception, abortion, same-sex relations, and assisted dying; prevalence of female genital cutting; prevalence of forced marriage; rates of domestic violence and marital rape; legal prohibition of torture; conditions of incarceration.

Current state. Progress is real but profoundly uneven. In 2024, same-sex relations remain criminalized in approximately 64 countries, with the death penalty applicable in at least 6. An estimated 200 million women and girls alive today have undergone female genital cutting. Forced marriage remains widespread in parts of South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. And in the United States, the Supreme Court's 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization reversed half a century of reproductive rights jurisprudence, demonstrating that progress is never irreversible.

Obstacles. Religious doctrine that treats the body as divine property rather than the individual's own. Patriarchal power structures that treat women's bodies as communal resources. State power that treats bodies as instruments of policy (forced labor, conscription, forced sterilization). And the persistent confusion between personal moral conviction and legitimate legal authority: the belief that because I disapprove of a practice, you should be prevented from engaging in it.

Marker 5: Reduction of Coercive Power

Coercive power -- the capacity of one actor to compel another to act against their will, backed by the threat of force or deprivation -- is not inherently illegitimate. Some coercion is necessary for any organized society: the enforcement of criminal law, the collection of taxes to fund public goods, the regulation of activities that harm others. But coercive power is inherently dangerous, because those who possess it have a systematic tendency to expand it beyond its legitimate scope.

The evidence. The historical trajectory of coercive power reduction includes the transition from absolute monarchy to constitutional government; the development of the rule of law; the separation of church and state; the establishment of independent judiciaries; the creation of antitrust law to limit corporate power; and the development of international law and institutions to constrain state power. Each of these represents a measurable reduction in the capacity of particular actors to coerce others.

Measurement. Independence of the judiciary (World Justice Project Rule of Law Index); constraints on executive power (V-Dem Institute); freedom from arbitrary detention; civilian control of the military; separation of church and state; concentration of corporate market power; absence of forced labor.

Current state. Mixed. In many countries, executive power has expanded at the expense of legislative and judicial checks. Corporate concentration has increased dramatically in the digital economy, giving a handful of companies unprecedented power over information flows. Surveillance technology has given governments and corporations new tools of coercion that operate not through physical force but through the manipulation of information and incentives.

Obstacles. The inherent tendency of power to seek its own expansion. The difficulty of creating institutions that constrain power without being captured by it. The willingness of populations to trade liberty for security, particularly in times of fear. And the emergence of new forms of coercive power -- algorithmic manipulation, surveillance capitalism, social credit systems -- that do not fit neatly into existing legal frameworks.

Marker 6: Equality Before Law Regardless of Birth Characteristics

The principle that a person's legal rights and obligations should not depend on characteristics they did not choose -- their sex, race, ethnicity, caste, sexual orientation, or the social class into which they were born -- is one of the most powerful ideas in human history. It is also one of the most incompletely realized.

The evidence. The arc of legal equality over the past two centuries is unmistakable: the abolition of slavery, the extension of legal personhood to women, the dismantling of formal racial hierarchies (Jim Crow, apartheid, colonial legal systems), the criminalization of discrimination on the basis of sex, race, religion, and sexual orientation. Each of these developments is measurable and documentable.

Measurement. Legal protections against discrimination; gender parity in education, employment, and political representation; racial and ethnic disparities in criminal justice outcomes, income, wealth, and health; legal recognition of same-sex relationships; caste-based discrimination indices.

Current state. Formal legal equality has been achieved in a substantial number of countries, but substantive equality remains elusive. Women earn less than men in virtually every country on earth. Racial minorities face discrimination in criminal justice systems worldwide. Caste-based discrimination persists in South Asia despite legal prohibition. And in many countries, formal legal equality has not been achieved at all: women cannot inherit property on equal terms, same-sex relationships are criminalized, and ethnic minorities are denied citizenship.

Obstacles. Deeply entrenched prejudices that persist long after legal reforms. Economic structures that reproduce inequality across generations. Political systems that give disproportionate voice to dominant groups. And the seductive appeal of social hierarchies, which offer the psychological comfort of knowing one's place -- even when that place is unjust.

Marker 7: Access to Knowledge and Education

Access to knowledge -- the ability to acquire, evaluate, and use information about the world -- is both intrinsically valuable and instrumentally essential to every other marker of civilizational progress. A population that cannot read, that lacks access to scientific knowledge, that is denied the tools of critical thinking, is a population that cannot govern itself, protect its rights, or make informed choices about its own future.

The evidence. Global literacy rates have risen from approximately 12 percent in 1820 to over 87 percent today. Enrollment in primary education is nearly universal. Secondary and tertiary enrollment have expanded dramatically, particularly for women and girls. The digital revolution has, in principle, made the accumulated knowledge of humanity available to anyone with an internet connection.

Measurement. Literacy rates; years of schooling; enrollment rates at primary, secondary, and tertiary levels; gender parity in education; access to the internet; quality of education (PISA scores and equivalents); academic freedom indices.

Current state. Access has expanded enormously, but quality and equity remain serious problems. In many countries, children attend school but learn little, because schools are underfunded, teachers are undertrained, and curricula are designed for indoctrination rather than critical thinking. The digital divide persists: approximately 2.6 billion people -- roughly one-third of the world's population -- remain offline. And the quality of available information has been degraded by the proliferation of misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda on digital platforms.

Obstacles. Poverty, which prevents families from investing in education. Authoritarian governments, which fear an educated and critically thinking populace. Cultural norms that devalue the education of women and girls. The commercialization of education, which makes quality instruction a privilege of the wealthy. And the epistemological crisis produced by the internet, which has made information abundant but knowledge scarce.

Marker 8: Cooperative Governance Replacing Violent Competition

The replacement of violent competition -- war, conquest, domination -- with cooperative institutions for resolving disputes and managing shared problems is one of the most important, and most underappreciated, markers of civilizational progress.

The evidence. The creation of international institutions after 1945 -- the United Nations, the Bretton Woods institutions, the European Economic Community (later the EU), and the various regional organizations that followed -- represented a historically unprecedented attempt to replace the competitive anarchy of the nation-state system with cooperative governance structures. The results, while far from perfect, are significant. Interstate war has become rare among countries that are integrated into these cooperative structures. The EU has maintained peace among countries that fought three devastating wars in seventy years. Trade agreements, arms control treaties, and environmental accords have demonstrated that cooperation is possible even among adversaries.

Measurement. Membership in international organizations; compliance with international law; frequency of interstate armed conflict; diplomatic resolution of disputes vs. military resolution; participation in multilateral environmental agreements; peacekeeping operations.

Current state. The cooperative order built after 1945 is under severe strain. The United Nations Security Council is paralyzed by great-power vetoes. International law is routinely violated by powerful states with impunity. The multilateral trading system is fracturing. Climate negotiations have produced agreements (Paris, 2015) but insufficient action. And the return of great-power competition -- between the United States and China, between Russia and the West -- threatens to unravel decades of cooperative institution-building.

Obstacles. National sovereignty, which gives states the legal right to opt out of cooperation when it suits them. Great-power exceptionalism -- the claim, made by every great power in history, that the rules apply to others but not to them. The free-rider problem, which incentivizes individual actors to exploit cooperative arrangements without contributing to them. And the deep psychological appeal of zero-sum thinking: the instinct that my gain requires your loss.

Marker 9: Environmental Sustainability

Environmental sustainability is species preservation extended: it is the commitment to maintaining the ecological conditions that make human life -- and all life -- possible. It is listed ninth not because it is less important than the markers above but because it is, in a sense, the precondition for all of them. A civilization that destroys its ecological basis has failed by every standard, no matter how well it scores on other markers.

The evidence. The environmental record of modern civilization is, by any honest assessment, catastrophic. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has risen from approximately 280 parts per million in the pre-industrial era to over 420 ppm in 2024 -- a level not seen in at least 800,000 years. The rate of species extinction is estimated at 100 to 1,000 times the natural background rate. Deforestation, ocean acidification, soil degradation, freshwater depletion, and plastic pollution continue at rates that are demonstrably unsustainable.

Measurement. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita and total; rate of deforestation; biodiversity indices; ocean health indicators; freshwater availability; soil quality; waste generation and recycling rates; renewable energy adoption.

Current state. Despite growing awareness and some notable achievements (the expansion of renewable energy, the restoration of the ozone layer, the recovery of some endangered species), the overall trajectory remains deeply alarming. Global emissions continue to rise. The targets set by the Paris Agreement are not being met. And the political will to make the structural changes necessary -- in energy production, transportation, agriculture, and consumption patterns -- remains grossly inadequate to the scale of the problem.

Obstacles. The externalization of environmental costs by market economies, which make pollution profitable. The short time horizons of democratic politics, which incentivize leaders to prioritize immediate economic gains over long-term sustainability. The power of fossil fuel industries, which have invested billions in delaying action on climate change. And the psychological difficulty of responding to threats that are diffuse, gradual, and abstract, even when the scientific evidence is overwhelming.

Marker 10: Reduction of Manipulation and Propaganda

A civilization in which people's beliefs, desires, and choices are systematically manipulated by those in power -- whether through state propaganda, commercial advertising, religious indoctrination, or algorithmic curation -- is a civilization in which individual autonomy is compromised at its root. Liberty is meaningless if the beliefs on which people base their choices have been engineered by others for others' purposes.

The evidence. The history of propaganda is as old as the history of power. What has changed is the sophistication and scale of the tools available. The twentieth century saw the development of mass propaganda techniques by totalitarian states (Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Maoist China) that were capable of shaping the beliefs and behavior of entire populations. The twenty-first century has added digital tools of unprecedented power: targeted advertising based on personal data, algorithmic content curation designed to maximize engagement rather than inform, deepfakes, and automated disinformation campaigns.

Measurement. Press freedom indices; media pluralism and ownership concentration; transparency of political advertising; prevalence of state censorship; algorithmic transparency; media literacy rates; trust in institutions and media.

Current state. The information environment has deteriorated dramatically in the past two decades. Social media platforms optimized for engagement have created epistemic bubbles and amplified misinformation. Authoritarian governments have developed sophisticated digital censorship and propaganda systems (China's Great Firewall, Russia's troll farms). And even in democratic societies, the concentration of media ownership and the decline of local journalism have reduced the quality and diversity of available information.

Obstacles. The economic incentives of attention-based business models, which reward sensationalism and outrage over accuracy and nuance. The political utility of propaganda for those in power. The psychological vulnerability of human beings to manipulation techniques that exploit cognitive biases. And the difficulty of regulating information without infringing on free expression.

Marker 11: Cultural Exchange Replacing Cultural Chauvinism

Cultural chauvinism -- the belief that one's own culture is inherently superior to others and that cultural exchange represents contamination rather than enrichment -- is one of the most persistent obstacles to civilizational progress. Its opposite -- genuine cultural exchange, in which different traditions learn from one another without domination or erasure -- is one of the most powerful engines of human advancement.

The evidence. The historical record demonstrates overwhelmingly that cultural exchange produces civilizational advance. The Islamic Golden Age was fueled by the translation and synthesis of Greek, Persian, Indian, and Chinese knowledge. The European Renaissance was triggered by the recovery of classical learning, much of it transmitted through Arabic translations. Modern science is the product of a global collaborative enterprise to which every major civilization has contributed. The most creative and dynamic societies in human history -- Periclean Athens, Tang Dynasty China, Abbasid Baghdad, Renaissance Florence, modern New York -- have without exception been societies characterized by intense cultural exchange.

Measurement. International student mobility; translation flows (UNESCO Index Translationum); cultural diversity indices; immigration and integration indicators; multilingualism rates; representation of diverse cultural perspectives in public discourse and education.

Current state. Cultural exchange has never been more extensive, thanks to global communication, travel, and migration. But it has also never been more contested. Nativist movements in Europe and North America demonize immigration and cultural diversity. Authoritarian governments in China, Russia, and elsewhere promote cultural nationalism and restrict foreign cultural influence. And the lingering effects of colonialism mean that much "cultural exchange" remains asymmetric, with Western cultural products dominating global markets while non-Western traditions are marginalized or exoticized.

Obstacles. The psychological comfort of cultural homogeneity. The political utility of cultural nationalism for leaders who seek to mobilize populations against external "threats." The economic dominance of Western, particularly American, cultural industries, which creates asymmetries in cultural exchange. And the genuine difficulty of distinguishing between cultural exchange (which enriches all parties) and cultural imperialism (which destroys local traditions and imposes foreign ones).

Marker 12: Rational Discourse Replacing Dogmatic Authority

The final marker -- and in many ways the most important, because it is the condition for progress on all the others -- is the replacement of dogmatic authority with rational discourse. A civilization in which questions about how to live, what to believe, and how to organize society are settled by appeal to evidence, argument, and open debate is more advanced than one in which they are settled by appeal to sacred texts, traditional authority, or the pronouncements of leaders who claim infallibility.

The evidence. The historical shift from dogmatic authority to rational discourse is the central narrative of what we call the Enlightenment -- a process that began, in different forms, in multiple civilizations (Greek philosophy, Islamic rationalism, Chinese evidential scholarship, the European Scientific Revolution) and that remains incomplete everywhere. Its institutional expressions include the university, the scientific community, the free press, the independent judiciary, and the democratic legislature. Its intellectual expressions include the scientific method, the principles of logical argumentation, and the norm of evidence-based reasoning.

Measurement. Academic freedom indices; scientific publication rates; independence of research institutions; quality of public discourse; prevalence of evidence-based policymaking; freedom of inquiry; legal protection for dissent and heresy.

Current state. Rational discourse is under assault from multiple directions. Populist movements dismiss expertise as elitism. Authoritarian governments suppress intellectual freedom. Social media platforms reward emotional intensity over argumentative rigor. Conspiracy theories proliferate. And within the academy itself, there are tendencies -- from both left and right -- that subordinate evidence and argument to ideological commitment.

Obstacles. The psychological appeal of certainty, which makes dogmatic authority attractive even when it is false. The social costs of dissent, which discourage people from challenging dominant beliefs. The economic and political power of institutions -- churches, states, corporations -- that benefit from the suppression of rational inquiry. And the inherent difficulty of rational discourse itself, which requires patience, intellectual honesty, and a willingness to be wrong -- qualities that are in perpetually short supply.

The Scorecard Concept

These twelve markers, taken together, constitute what might be called a civilizational scorecard -- a framework for assessing, in a structured and evidence-based way, how well a given society is doing at enabling human flourishing and reducing avoidable suffering.

The scorecard is not a ranking system designed to produce a league table of nations, though it could in principle be used for that purpose. Its primary function is diagnostic: to identify, in a specific and actionable way, the areas in which a given civilization is succeeding and the areas in which it is failing. A country might score well on economic prosperity and access to education but poorly on environmental sustainability and reduction of coercive power. Another might score well on cultural exchange and equality before law but poorly on reduction of violent death and cooperative governance. The scorecard does not produce a single number. It produces a profile -- a map of strengths and weaknesses that can guide reform.

The scorecard is also comparative -- not in the sense of "my civilization is better than yours" but in the sense of "what can we learn from societies that have made more progress on a particular marker?" If Scandinavian countries have achieved dramatically lower homicide rates than the United States, the question is not "which country is better?" but "what institutional arrangements account for the difference, and can they be adapted?" If Bhutan's Gross National Happiness index captures something that GDP misses, the question is what that something is and how to measure it more precisely.

Finally, the scorecard is temporal. It measures not just where a civilization stands at a given moment but whether it is moving in the right direction. A country that is poor but rapidly reducing poverty is, by this framework, doing better than a country that is rich but stagnating. A country that is authoritarian but gradually expanding freedoms is doing better than a country that was free but is becoming authoritarian. The direction of travel matters as much as the current position.

Conclusion: Evaluation Without Arrogance

The framework proposed in this chapter is open to the charge of arrogance. Who are we -- who is anyone -- to evaluate civilizations, to say that some are doing better than others, to identify failures and propose remedies?

The answer has already been given, but it bears repeating. The authority claimed here is not personal, cultural, or divine. It is the authority of evidence, applied with the method of honest observation. The twelve markers are not the author's opinions. They are the convergent conclusions of a vast body of empirical research, conducted by scholars from dozens of countries, published in peer-reviewed journals, and subject to ongoing scrutiny and revision.

To refuse to draw evaluative conclusions from this evidence is not modesty. It is evasion. When millions of people suffer avoidably, when freedoms are crushed, when the planetary ecosystem is degraded, when power is abused and truth is suppressed, the intellectually honest response is not "it's all relative" or "who are we to judge?" It is to look at the evidence, name what is wrong, and propose what would be better.

This is not arrogance. It is responsibility.

The chapters that follow will apply this framework to the core principles of a rational civilization (Part II), to the great obstacles that stand in the way (Part III), to the domains of human liberation that remain to be achieved (Part IV), to the philosophical traditions that inform and challenge us (Part V), and to the practical question of what a better world might look like and how we might build it (Part VI).

The instrument is now in our hands. Let us use it.

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